In May, Adam Elkus examined the H1N1 in terms of system perturbation:
Mexico’s image has also taken a severe battering. Already portrayed in international media as a warzone riven by cartel violence, Mexico’s status as a possible origin point of the influenza is likely to have adverse public relations and economic effects long after the influenza outbreak extinguishes itself. Non-essential services in Mexico have currently ceased and 168 have already died from flu-like symptoms. China experienced similar embarrassment after the 2003 SARS epidemic and the 2006 Avian Flu outbreak, spurring calls for healthcare and governance reforms. Many international actors perceived the reforms that resulted as effective. By the time the 2008 Olympics rolled around, Avian Flu was a distant memory. As an Associated Press story notes, Mexico will likely face a similar pressure for reform because of its lackluster response to the outbreak…
Could it have the same affect on the international stage? I won’t be holding my breath. Thomas P.M. Barnett defines system perturbation as “like a giant stone dropped into a calm pond”, after which “…all bets are off. The old rule set evaporates, the new one is not yet gelled”. For all their effects, epidemics (and pandemics) have historically been weak causes of this type of international reorganization. United States foreign policy was affected by the 1918 Spanish Flu, but the pandemic did little to change the fundamental structure of United States behavior towards other countries in the international environment. Compared with the aftermath of WWII, which brought about a new system of international relations (e.g. hegemony with responsibilities, international organizations), epidemics are rather ineffectual as agents of system perturbation. Epidemics are significant, but don’t expect them to reset the international environment.
Christopher R. Albon is a Ph.D. candidate specializing in armed conflict, public health, human security, and health diplomacy.
Want more? Subscribe to Conflict Health through RSS or email.
{ 2 comments }
We agree that H1N1 is an international disaster that must be faced jointly by all countries in the world
Well, SARS did beget the new International Health Regulations. A new public health ruleset from a public health system perturbation, with relatively few impacts outside of public health. Perhaps HIV is a better example of an epidemic or pandemic as system perturbation?
Comments on this entry are closed.