A report published by the New America Foundation estimates up to 320 Pakistani civilians have died in US drone-based airstrikes. The statistic was estimated from an analysis of news reports.
We restricted our analysis to reports in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, accounts by major news services and networks–the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, CNN, and the BBC–and reports in the leading English-language newspapers in Pakistan–The Daily Times, Dawn, and The News–as well as those from Geo TV, the largest independent Pakistani television network.
Here is a summary of the results:
It is not possible to differentiate precisely between militant and civilian casualties because the militants live among the population and don’t wear uniforms, and because the militants have the incentive to claim that all the casualties were civilians, while government sources tend to claim the opposite. However, of those killed in drone attacks from 2006 through mid-October 2009, between 500 and 700 were described in reliable press reports as militants, or some 66 to 68 percent.
Based on our count of the estimated number of militants killed, the real total of civilian deaths since 2006 appears to be in the range of 250 to 320, or between 31 and 33 percent.
The report offers a counterargument to the growing number of ‘offshore balancers’, who argue the United States should withdraw all ground forces and instead bomb Afghanistan and Pakistan from afar. Forcing civilians and militants to keep on eye on the sky is not victory as currently defined. In their words, “the drone program is a tactic, not a strategy”.
Christopher R. Albon is a political science Ph.D. specializing in armed conflict, public health, human security, and health diplomacy.
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