A while ago, an internet flash game called Pandemic 2 became popular in some circles. In the game, players manipulate a disease’s characteristics (symptoms, resistances, etc…) to develop the deadliest possible pandemic. Simply put, players design diseases to wipe out the human race.
Play Pandemic 2 for any significant length of time and you quickly realize why the game is so difficult: Madagascar. In the game, Madagascar has a hairpin trigger for closing its borders, making infecting the island nation almost impossible.
Madagascar’s behavior in the game has started an ongoing internet joke about what goes on in high level policy discussions in the government during the simulated pandemic (one example is shown on the right).
The punchline has a ring of truth. Last spring, Mexico shut down the country for days to counter H1N1. But, is closing down a country (or even part of a country) actually a good option in the real world? Only if you face a biblical plague.
The economic cost of closing down (or closing off) a country for any length of time is immense. It is a lesson Mexico learned the hard way. Not only does the domestic economic activity of a state take a major hit, the closure fuels fears amongst international trading partners that states are unstable and unreliable. Investors like policy stability. States prone to shutting down in the face of pandemics risk becoming less appealing investment locations. As globalization and climate change make pandemics more common, countries with reputations for resiliency during outbreaks will become attractive investment locations. The tendency of Pandemic 2’s Madagascar to close its borders at the slightest sign of danger would make it an foreign direct investment (FDI) pariah. Unless of course, we faced the perfect pandemic, in which case, see you there.
Christopher R. Albon is a Ph.D. candidate specializing in armed conflict, public health, human security, and health diplomacy.
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