The study of genocide rarely brings up connotations of R-code and heteroskedasiticity, but it should. Jina Moore at the Christian Science Monitor has a story on Patrick Ball, a statistician and expert on the quantitative study of genocide.
Like all statisticians, Ball began with the most basic hypothesis: In looking for a common cause, he is already wrong. Statistics begins with an original assumption – that everything is random – and discards it only when the data suggest otherwise. In Ball’s case, they did: He found patterns in the mass movement of refugees strong enough to suggest that more than ordinary wartime chaos was at work. At the same time, the relationship between migration and NATO or KLA actions was so weak that he knew neither was the cause.
Statisticians have a language for description without interpretation. When the analysis showed the movements were neither random nor likely to follow NATO or KLA activities, Ball wrote: "The migration patterns of Kosovar Albanians are consistent with the hypothesis that there was a coordinated and organized effort to drive them from their homes." In layman’s terms, the data suggested ethnic cleansing. In fact, the migration patterns matched killing patterns "so unbelievably perfectly" that he concluded that the two situations might be explained by the same external influence.
The quantitative study of conflict fills an important role in both research and policy. The statistical analysis of data, while lacking the glamour of other approaches, can reveal patterns otherwise concealed. In recent years quantitative methodology has grown in popularity in political science. This trend has lead to numerous heated exchanges between qualitative and quantitative researchers. Regarding the role of statistics in conflict studies, I think Ball has the right attitude:
But even so devoted a numbers guy knows graphs don’t tell the whole story. "Statistics define the limits of what’s plausible and what’s not plausible," he says. "Statistics do not tell us how it felt to be there."
In 2000, just after a Kosovo newspaper published his conclusions about migration, Ball was on a radio show. "Someone called in and said, ‘I’m in your graph,’" he recalls. "The peak, right there, that’s where I was. I could feel that wave.’ "
Link Love: Chris Blattman
Christopher Albon is a Ph.D. candidate specializing in armed conflict, public health, human security, and health diplomacy.
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