Science Daily is running a story on a new technique using satellites to predict and map cholera outbreaks. Researchers have found a relationship between sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and cholera epidemics. Professor Rita Colwell proposes that satellites could be used to measure the latter two and thus predict regions at risk.
While Professor Colwell’s work is interesting and I am a big fan of satellite based analysis, as a political scientist, I wonder if this could be applied to conflict zones. Cholera and armed violence have always been linked. Almost all major armed conflicts in human history are accompanied by cholera outbreaks. Given this close connection, can satellites help predict and map cholera during conflicts? I think so.
In a 1999 paper, Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff found that the Cuban insurrection shaped the spatial course of infectious disease epidemics in the country (not cholera, however):
… the spatial course of epidemics in wartime was dictated by a shifting locus of hostilities, with early involvement of the south-Eastern province of Oriente and a drift away from this initial focus as the insurrection progressed. In contrast, the pre-war period was characterized by a mortality centre that was rooted in the north-western and central provinces of the country.
Colwell’s modeling technique does not include information on human behavior (namely violence and population movements). However, in theory her technique could be combined with traditional intelligence sources to generate a prediction map of cholera risk in conflict zones.
Work Cited
Smallman-Raynor, Matthew, and Andrew D. Cliff. 1999. “The Spatial Dynamics of Epidemic Diseases in War and Peace: Cuba and the Insurrection against Spain, 1895-98.” Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 24(3):331-352.
Christopher R. Albon is a political science Ph.D. specializing in armed conflict, public health, human security, and health diplomacy.
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