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WARNING: Black Market Cigarettes May Be Hazardous to Countries in Conflict

by Paul Rexton Kan on February 23, 2010

Today’s guest post is by Paul Rexton Kan of the U.S. Army War College. Kan recently published a book on drug trade and use in modern warfare. The book was previously reviewed on Conflict Health and can be purchased on Amazon.

A carton of menthols can be just a deadly as a clip of ammo. The well-known associated health risks of smoking are not what make cigarettes deadly in war zones. Smoking may shorten one’s life, but that calculation is lost on a combatant who lives in the daily crosshairs of possible death. Beyond providing combatants a simple rush of nicotine, cigarettes play a critical role in prolonging many of today’s ongoing and persistent conflicts.

Second only to the trafficking in illegal narcotics, the smuggling of cigarettes—both legitimate and counterfeit—fund a variety of groups involved in terrorism, insurgency, civil wars and interstate conflicts.  Because cigarettes are small and light weight, they are easy to smuggle into a variety of conflict zones.  Plus, the disparity in their taxation across the globe has created a rich environment for smuggling.  The World Health Organization estimates that over 10 percent of the 5.7 trillion cigarettes sold globally each year are illicit.  This means that the global black market alone would supply 4.5 packs annually to each person on the planet.

Cigarettes and modern war have an intimate connection.  In fact, the mass production of cigarettes coincided with the mass mobilization of the Great War.  Bull Durham tobacco company wanted American GIs to smoke their way to victory: “when our boys light up, the Huns will light out!”  Mass production of cigarettes in a time when heavy, conventional forces faced each other across a defined battle space has given way to mass smuggling by groups who operate in the shadows of the legitimate economy to fund violence across the spectrum of conflict.

Nonetheless, smuggling lives up to Bull Durham’s World War I marketing slogan—cigarettes are an expression of patriotism.  Those who raise money for many of today’s violent conflicts through the smuggling of contraband are seen as heroes by those who support the movement.  In fact, when the conflicts are over and the international community seeks to build a stable and sustainable government, smugglers often become members of the new government because they are already popular among the people they served in the war.

There are very few pressures or disincentives for today’s belligerents to give up smuggling cigarettes.  Their availability, demand, transportability, and the way in which their profits can be turned into patriotism and political power means that warring groups are just as hooked on cigarettes as smokers themselves.

Paul Rexton Kan is currently an Associate Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. While finishing his Ph.D., he was the Deputy Director of the Center for China-United States Cooperation where he coordinated professional exchanges with Chinese officials from the policy institutions linked to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of State Security, and the People’s Liberation Army.

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Conflict And Health Roundup — Conflict Health
February 25, 2010 at 3:53 pm

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1 Jim Breck February 23, 2010 at 9:56 pm

How does this compare in magnitude to illicite drugs such as the Taliban’s poppy/opium trade?

2 Paul Kan February 24, 2010 at 8:36 am

Excellent question! Illicit drugs are far more profitable, as a worldwide total. The groups that fall under the label of “Taliban” also smuggle cigarettes….into Afghanistan. Second-hand accounts reveal that Afghan customs officials routinely find cigarettes and boot-leg consumer goods–DVDs, electronics, apparel–when they search vehicles in transit to the country. These goods are often used to barter for quantities of opium paste or refined heroin. I hope that answers your question, and thanks for reading my post.

3 Eva February 24, 2010 at 11:42 am

While the marginal gain, pound for pound, of heroin v. cigarettes, does not even compare, I wonder whether, it can be argued that cigarettes, the consumption of which is by and large licit, is more profitable as an enterprise than illicit drugs when you factor in the “war on drugs” initiatives of many countries, the destruction of crops, the cost in lives for smugglers, etc.
Thanks for bringing up this fascinating topic.

4 Paul Kan February 24, 2010 at 12:13 pm

That is an interesting point. Cigarette companies do not lose money when their products are smuggled. Rather, governments lose money (revenue) because smuggled cigarettes avoid taxation. Counterfeit cigarettes are another issue; they skirt taxation and company profit-taking. In this case, they resemble illicit narcotics, but not entirely. One wonders if cocaine, heroin, marijuana, meth and ecstasy were legal worldwide, but were taxed inconsistently, would the effects on countries in conflict be the same as they are for cigarettes. That’s food for thought. Thanks for your comment!

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